PrepTuesday, June 30

Round of 32 Tuesday: Haaland's Hammer, France's Formality, and Mexico's Fiesta

⚙ Auto-generated — may contain errors

Three knockout ties on Tuesday run the full gamut — a genuine upset thriller in the afternoon, a coronation in the evening, and a raucous late-night North American derby to close it out.

The pool is nearly unanimous on France (71/71) and heavily on Mexico (65/71), which tracks the markets just fine — the real intrigue is Ivory Coast vs Norway, where 55 of you are riding Haaland while 16 still believe in the Elephants.

Côte d'Ivoire vs Norway — 17:00 UTC | The One That Could Actually Surprise You

This is the match of the day in every sense that matters. Norway arrive as the market's clear favourites — bookmakers have Erling Haaland's side as the likely winners, and it's hard to argue when the man has been essentially unguardable at this tournament. But Côte d'Ivoire are no paper tigers: the Elephants qualified from what was a brutally competitive group, and Sébastien Haller — whose cancer survival story alone deserves a standing ovation — leads their line with a menace that Norwegian defenders cannot simply dismiss. The key tactical battle is Haaland vs the Ivorian backline; if Jean-Louis Gasset can set his defensive block deep and spring Haller and Simon Adingra on the counter, there is a goal in this team. Norway's weakness has been their tendency to concede cheap goals when the press is beaten. The stakes are as simple as knockout football gets: win or go home. Fifty-five of you have backed Norway, 16 are riding the Elephants — and if the upset merchants are right, those 16 will be wearing very satisfied smiles come full-time.

France vs Sweden — 21:00 UTC | The Most Inevitable Result on the Bracket

All 71 of you picked France. Every single one. And frankly, it's hard to mount a defence for any other choice. Les Bleus have looked imperious — Kylian Mbappé fully fit and purring, Antoine Griezmann conducting proceedings with that infuriating elegance, and a midfield engine room that has smothered every opponent they've faced. Sweden, for their part, deserve credit for getting here: Alexander Isak has been lively and Viktor Gyökeres gives any defence a problem to solve. But France's defensive organisation under Didier Deschamps has conceded miserly all tournament, and Sweden simply don't have the firepower to unpick it. The pool's most popular scoreline is 3-1 to France (28 picks), followed by 4-1 (13 picks) — a tally that suggests the group is more interested in how many France score than whether they win. With 20 of you having France as your outright tournament winners, this one is a straight points-banking exercise. Enjoy the football; the intrigue starts in the next round.

Mexico vs Ecuador — 01:00 UTC | The Late-Night Latin Derby

The host nation's last knockout fixture of the night, and what a cauldron it will be — 65 of 71 pool members are backing El Tri, with only six brave souls on Ecuador. The market agrees: Mexico, buoyed by home advantage and a raucous fanbase, are favourites, though Ecuador are no pushovers. Enner Valencia — the man Ecuador simply cannot do without — will test a Mexican backline that has looked solid but not impenetrable. For Mexico, Santiago Giménez has been the focal point of every dangerous attack, and if he fires, the home side should progress. The pool's most common scorelines are 1-0 (21 picks) and 2-1 (20 picks), reflecting a collective sense that this is a win but not a rout — a tight, tense affair with an atmosphere that will shake the stadium walls. If Ecuador nick this, six people in this pool will be having a very good week indeed.

▸Sources (24)