RecapTuesday, June 30

Paraguay Stun Germany, Morocco Sink the Dutch, and Brazil Scrape Through in a Night of Mayhem

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A dramatic evening in the Round of 32 delivered two massive upsets — Paraguay dumping out Germany on penalties and Morocco doing the same to the Netherlands — while Brazil edged Japan 2-1 in the one result the pool (mostly) got right.

The pool managed a miserable 33% accuracy night: 68 of 71 nailed Brazil, and 20 of you hit the exact 2-1 scoreline — brilliant — but every single one of the 71 entries backed Germany, and only 21 brave souls had Morocco, meaning this was one of those rounds that reshuffles the leaderboard in brutal fashion.

Brazil 2-1 Japan — The Good News First

The Samba boys gave their 68 backers a fright they didn't entirely deserve. Brazil went ahead through a slick Rodrygo finish early in the second half, then Vinicius Jr. — electric all evening, drawing fouls and dragging defenders into uncomfortable places — doubled the lead before Japan's Ayase Ueda pulled one back to set up a nervy finale. It was a flattering scoreline in the end given how much Japan pressed in the final twenty minutes, but Brazil's quality in the transition was decisive. Twenty of you nailed the 2-1 exactly, which is a tidy haul. The Samba boys are into the last sixteen; the Samurai Blue exit with heads held high after a proper fight.

Germany 1-1 Paraguay (Paraguay win 4-3 on penalties) — The Night Everything Went Wrong

There will be a reckoning in German football this morning. Die Mannschaft, who the entire pool — all 71 entries, not one dissenter — backed to win comfortably, were outfought, outnerved, and ultimately outscored from twelve yards by a Paraguay side nobody gave a prayer. Germany dominated possession and chances throughout, and took the lead through a first-half Florian Wirtz strike that looked like the formality everyone expected. But Paraguay levelled through a Miguel Almirón set-piece, dug in with a ferocity that made Julian Nagelsmann's men look ordinary, and then converted four of their penalties while Germany — infuriatingly — managed only three. Ilkay Gündoğan missed. Of course he did. This is the exit pool points simply cannot recover from: zero from 71 on the outcome means the table has been flipped upside down. The bookmakers had Germany as heavy favourites; the pool agreed unanimously; Paraguay didn't read either memo.

Netherlands 1-1 Morocco (Morocco win 3-2 on penalties) — The Atlas Lions Roar Again

If Germany's exit was a shock, Morocco making the last sixteen is a statement. The Atlas Lions, who broke hearts in Qatar in 2022 and spent four years reminding everyone they weren't a fluke, dispatched the Netherlands in a penalty shootout that felt, by the end, entirely just. Sofyan Amrabat ran the midfield like he had a personal grudge against every orange shirt, and goalkeeper Yassine Bounou — Bono, as he's known — was immense, saving two Dutch penalties to reprise his Qatar heroics. The Netherlands, with Virgil van Dijk commanding at the back and Cody Gakpo threatening throughout, scored first and looked in control, but Morocco's equaliser — a header from Nayef Aguerd — forced extra time and then the shootout that broke Dutch hearts. Fifty of the pool's 71 entries backed the Netherlands; 21 had Morocco. Those 21 are very pleased with themselves this evening, and rightly so — twelve of them even called the draw scoreline exactly, which is a sublime piece of foresight or extraordinary luck, possibly both.

What It All Means

Two of the tournament's heavyweights — Germany and the Netherlands — are gone before the quarter-finals, and a record night of chaos has compressed the pool leaderboard like an accordion. Anyone who had Germany is now playing catch-up; anyone who had Morocco is suddenly dangerous. Brazil's progression is the one clean result, but even the Samba boys will need to sharpen up if they're going to go deep. The Round of 16 is already shaping up to be extraordinary — and after a night like this, absolutely nothing can be taken for granted.

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