Pre-matchThursday, June 25

One Lone Soul Backs the Carthage Eagles

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Tunisia are already eliminated and the Netherlands need just a point to guarantee top spot in Group F, but 70 of 74 poolsters are backing the Oranje for a routine victory at 23:00 UTC on 25 June.

The bookies make the Netherlands heavy favourites to complete a perfect group stage, and 70 of you are in lockstep — just one brave soul has backed Tunisia, who haven't won a World Cup match since 1978.

The Maths: Oranje One Point From Glory

The Netherlands sit level on four points with Japan atop Group F but hold the superior head-to-head result, meaning even a draw here clinches first place and a Round of 16 date with the Group E runner-up. Tunisia, meanwhile, are already eliminated after shipping eight goals without reply across losses to Japan (0–4) and Sweden (0–4) — the Carthage Eagles' World Cup drought now stretches to 46 years without a win, their last victory coming against Mexico in Argentina 1978. Sweden can still snatch second with a win over Japan if results fall their way, but for Tunisia this is nothing more than a chance to salvage pride before the long flight home.

Team News: Gakpo Rested, Tunisia Unchanged

Ronald Koeman is expected to rotate heavily with qualification all but secured, resting key men like Cody Gakpo and Virgil van Daam while handing minutes to fringe players. Wout Weghorst could lead the line in place of Joshua Zirkzee, and Jeremie Frimpong may get a start at wing-back. For Tunisia, coach Montasser Loukil has no fresh injury concerns but faces the unenviable task of lifting a demoralized squad that has conceded four in each of their opening fixtures — expect the same back three of Montassar Talbi, Yassine Meriah, and Dylan Bronn to try once more to stem the tide, with Aïssa Laïdouni anchoring midfield.

The Matchup: Oranje Depth vs Tunisian Desperation

Even a rotated Netherlands side will fancy their chances against a Tunisian defence that has been carved open with alarming ease. The tactical battle hinges on whether Tunisia's counter-attacking threat — led by the pace of Youssef Msakni and the creativity of Anis Ben Slimane — can exploit any complacency in a reshuffled Dutch backline, or whether Koeman's reserves simply have too much class. The Netherlands have been clinical when they've needed to be, and with Frenkie de Jong likely to orchestrate from deep even if he starts, the Oranje should control possession and territory. Tunisia's best hope is an early goal to unsettle the favourites, but with zero points and zero goals so far, that feels like a long shot.

The Odds: Market Sees Comfortable Dutch Win

The betting markets reflect the mismatch: the Netherlands are clear favourites to win, with most bookmakers pricing them around 1.30 to 1.40, while Tunisia drift out beyond 9.00 and the draw sits in the 5.00 range. That aligns perfectly with the pool's read — 70 of 74 backing the Oranje, 28 of whom have plumped for a tidy 2–0 scoreline. The market expects a professional, if not spectacular, Dutch performance to wrap up Group F in style, and only the most romantic of souls — or that one contrarian — see the Carthage Eagles pulling off the shock of the tournament.

▸Sources (32)