Pre-matchWednesday, June 17

England–Croatia: Pool Splits on Opening Grudge Match

⚙ Auto-generated — may contain errors

England and Croatia renew their rivalry in Group L's opener, with the pool almost evenly split between an England win (40) and a draw (30) while bookmakers make the Three Lions clear favourites.

The market backs England heavily at around 1.53, but 30 of you are betting on a repeat of the nations' cagey tournament history with a draw—only 4 brave souls took Croatia.

What's at stake

It's Matchday 1 in Group L, so all four teams—England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama—sit level on zero points. A win here puts either England or Croatia in the driver's seat for knockout qualification, while a draw keeps the group wide open. England will want to avoid the slow starts that plagued recent tournaments; Croatia need points to steady a side in transition after their 2022 semifinal run.

The key matchup

This clash hinges on midfield control: England's Declan Rice and Jude Bellingham against Croatia's Luka Modrić, now 40 but still conducting tempo for the Vatreni. If Modrić and Mateo Kovačić can slow England's transitions, Croatia's experience could frustrate a Three Lions attack built around Harry Kane, Bukayo Saka, and Phil Foden. Defensively, John Stones and Harry Maguire face the clever movement of Andrej Kramarić and Bruno Petković. Set pieces loom large—both sides score and concede from dead balls.

Team news & expected lineups

England manager Thomas Tuchel is expected to deploy a 3-4-2-1 with Jordan Pickford in goal; a back three of Kyle Walker, Stones, and Maguire; wing-backs Trent Alexander-Arnold and Luke Shaw; Rice and Bellingham central; Saka and Foden behind Kane. Croatia coach Zlatko Dalić will likely counter with a 4-3-3: Dominik Livaković; Josip Juranović, Joško Gvardiol, Duje Ćaleta-Car, Borna Sosa; Modrić, Kovačić, Marcelo Brozović; Kramarić, Petković, and Ivan Perišić. No major injury concerns for either squad, though England are monitoring Luke Shaw's fitness.

What the odds say

Bookmakers favour England at approximately 1.53 (around 65% implied probability), with the draw near 4.00 and Croatia out at 6.50 or longer. The market reflects England's deeper squad and home-tournament momentum, but the history between these two—Croatia's 2018 semifinal win, the tight Euro 2020 group meeting (1–0 England)—explains why 30 of you are hedging with a draw and only 40 backing an England win outright.

▸Sources (31)