Pre-matchThursday, July 9

France vs. Morocco: The Sequel — Gillette Stadium, Foxborough | Thu 9 July, 8pm UTC

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Four years after France broke Moroccan hearts in a 2022 semi-final, the Atlas Lions return to knock on the same door — this time with nothing to lose and everything to prove.

A perfect, unanimous 63-0 for France in our pool — not one brave soul backed the upset. The market shares the faith, but the market also watched Morocco eliminate Spain, Portugal, and Belgium in Qatar. The most popular scoreline? 2-1 France — the exact margin of that 2022 semi-final. Whether that's prophecy or the herd finding comfort in déjà vu is tonight's entire question.

🏆 What's at Stake

Straight knockout — winner goes to the semis, loser goes home. For France, it is a third successive World Cup semi-final in their sights, a feat only Brazil managed across 1994–2002 in the modern era. For Morocco under coach Mohamed Ouahbi, reaching the last four again would be the greatest chapter yet in African football's long, hard climb to the summit of this sport. The Atlas Lions earned their place here with a thumping 3-0 dismantling of co-hosts Canada in the Round of 16 — Azzedine Ounahi bagged a brace, Soufiane Rahimi added the third — while France squeezed past Paraguay 1-0 on an Mbappé penalty in a result that, per Fox Sports, prompted the pointed observation that 'France hasn't really been tested yet.' Tonight they will be.

🩺 Team News & Expected Lineups

France carry one anxious subplot: vice-captain Aurélien Tchouaméni (thigh/adductor) missed the Paraguay game and, as of the latest update from L'Équipe cited by Fox Sports, remains a game-time decision — he has resumed individual training but Deschamps has declined to confirm availability. Manu Koné (AS Roma) is again likely to anchor midfield alongside Adrien Rabiot. The rest hums along nicely: Michael Olise has five tournament assists, Ousmane Dembélé four goals and two assists, and Kylian Mbappé — ten knockout-stage World Cup goals in history, more than any player ever per Republic World — arrives at seven for the tournament, one behind the great Messi. Marcus Thuram (calf) is out entirely, per injuriesandsuspensions.com. Expected XI: Maignan; Koundé, Upamecano, Saliba, Digne; Koné, Rabiot; Olise, Dembélé, Barcola; Mbappé. Morocco are fresher, though Nayef Aguerd (64 caps, defensive anchor) is absent from the squad altogether. Chadi Riad carries a knee knock from the Canada game; Redouane Halhal may replace him. Expected XI: Bounou; Hakimi, Diop, Riad/Halhal, Mazraoui; El Aynaoui, Bouaddi; Brahim Díaz, Ounahi, El Khannouss; Saibari. Ismael Saibari leads Morocco with three tournament goals; 18-year-old Ayyoub Bouaddi (Lille) has been one of the revelations of the entire competition.

⚡ The Key Matchup: Mbappé vs. Hakimi — A Paris Derby Goes Global

This is the duel that will make or break the match, and both men know each other intimately — they are teammates at PSG. Achraf Hakimi has been exceptional throughout: overlapping, pressing, menacing in the final third, and Fox Sports rightly labelled him one of the world's best right-backs heading into the tournament. But Hakimi's attacking instincts are precisely what Mbappé lives to punish on the counter. Push forward, leave space; stay back, surrender Morocco's width. There is no good answer. Deschamps knows this and will have a plan — it almost certainly involves making the PSG captain's evening as personally uncomfortable as the friendship allows. On the other flank, Brahim Díaz (Real Madrid, four assists in five Atlas Lions games) will probe Lucas Digne all night. Morocco's structural discipline under Ouahbi is genuine; they do not capitulate. But sustaining it against France's pace and depth for 90 minutes, without Aguerd behind them, is a different and harder ask than anything they faced in Qatar.

📊 What the Odds Say

France are the heavy market favourites across the board. BetMGM price France at +175 to win the whole tournament against Morocco's +2800, per Vegas Insider — a gap that tells you everything about the relative expectations. On the match itself, worldcup-2026.bet lists France at their shortest available price of 1.81 (roughly -124 US), while Sportsgambler's three-way line reads France -172 / Draw +290 / Morocco +525. Kalshi's prediction market, as reported by Covers, gives France a 34.3% tournament-win probability versus Morocco's 3.0% — an eleven-to-one differential in overall standing. CBSSports names France the solo tournament favourites at +180 (FanDuel), a position they have held since the group stage. All 63 of your pickers lined up with that consensus. Eleven of you called 2-1 France — the identical scoreline by which Les Bleus ended Morocco's Qatar dream. The Atlas Lions lived through that evening. They will not need reminding.

▸Sources (47)