PrepSunday, July 5

Samba Showdown & Three Lions on the Road: Your Sunday Double-Header Guide

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Brazil take on a Haaland-powered Norway at 9 PM ET before England look to prove their tournament credentials against a host nation Mexico on its own turf — two Round of 16 ties that could reshape the bottom half of the draw in a single glorious Sunday night.

The pool is firmly with the market on both games — 55 of 68 pickers (81%) fancy Brazil and 53 of 69 (77%) back England — so tonight is a chance for the contrarians who took Norway or Mexico to make some serious ground on the leaderboard.

What's at Stake: Win or Go Home

It's the Round of 16, so the maths are blissfully simple: win and you're in the quarter-finals, lose and you're on a plane. For Brazil, who swept through a group containing Cameroon and Serbia without conceding a goal, this is the moment to demonstrate they are genuine contenders rather than just the sentimental favourites. Norway arrive as surprise group-stage qualifiers — they topped a competitive pool containing Austria and Slovakia — but they have never reached the quarter-finals of a senior World Cup. For England and Mexico, the stakes are equally existential. England reached the last 16 with four points from Group D; Mexico, galvanised by their own supporters, won their group and will be playing effectively a home game in the Dallas/AT&T Stadium with the Azteca faithful making the short trip north. One famous manager once said you should fear the team that has everything to lose — well, tonight two of those teams exist in one city.

Brazil vs Norway — Haaland vs the Backline That Has Conceded Nothing

The headline narrative writes itself: Erling Haaland, the most clinical striker on the planet, against a Brazilian defensive unit that has not yet shipped a goal at this tournament. Haaland arrived in the United States with nine club goals in his last seven matches for Manchester City and wore the captain's armband with predictable authority during Norway's group campaign. Brazil's head coach Dorival Júnior is expected to persist with the back-four of Danilo, Marquinhos, Gabriel Magalhães and Guilherme Arana that shut out Cameroon and Serbia, with Ederson commanding the area behind them. The creative engine, naturally, is Vinicius Jr., who has two goals and an assist in the group stage and has been virtually unplayable when given space in behind. The market makes Brazil clear favourites for this one — a reflection of their squad depth, their defensive solidity, and the sheer mental weight of carrying a nation's 24-year trophy drought. Twenty of our 68 pickers went for the almost poetic 2-1 scoreline, suggesting they expect Brazil to win with a degree of drama, and that feels right: Norway will not roll over, but unless Haaland conjures something truly extraordinary the Samba boys look equipped to see this out. The 13 Norway backers among us will need a minor miracle — and Haaland has served those up before.

Mexico vs England — Gareth Who? Trent's England Face the Cauldron

England travel to Dallas under Lee Carsley — who succeeded Gareth Southgate after Euro 2024 — with a team that has quietly impressed rather than dazzled. Jude Bellingham has been England's talisman as ever, and the decision to deploy Trent Alexander-Arnold as a midfield playmaker looks increasingly vindicated: he has the most key passes of any English player through three group games. The concern is Harry Kane, who was substituted at half-time in the 1-0 win over Senegal with what the FA described as minor fatigue in his left calf. Kane has trained normally since, but expect Mexico's coaching staff to have made note. El Tri, meanwhile, have been as electric as their fans — Santiago Giménez has three group-stage goals and is operating at a level that makes you forget he only joined Real Madrid last January. The crowd inside AT&T Stadium will be overwhelming: an estimated 80,000 Mexico supporters are expected, making this as close to a home tie as a Round of 16 can be. Bookmakers make England moderate favourites — a tip of the hat to the squad quality, but nothing like the certainty you would expect if this were a neutral venue. Our pool sided with England 53-16, broadly matching the market view, though the 11 pickers who called a 1-1 draw may be onto something if Kane is not at full tilt. The loudest noise in world football tonight will not be in Brazil — it will be in north Texas.

Pool Championship Corner: A Big Night for the Brazil and England Backers

Zoom out to the big picture and tonight matters enormously for the title race. Forty of our 71 pool members (56%) still have France as their champion pick, but six have Brazil — and with England (three title picks) and Brazil (six) both in action, any slip-up by either side would instantly winnow the field. If Brazil go out, those six picks are effectively dead money. If England tumble against Mexico, the three England champions will be heartbroken — but the 40 France backers will barely flinch. The real wildcard is whether Norway or Mexico can turn the pool upside down tonight. Thirteen brave souls took Norway; 16 took Mexico. If either of those underdogs goes through, the leaderboard will look very different by midnight. Set your alarms, pick your seat, and brace yourself for what could be the most entertaining double-header of the tournament so far.

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