RecapThursday, July 2

Three Favourites, Three Wins — But Only One Gave the Pool a Scare

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England, Belgium, and the USA all advanced on July 1st, but Belgium needed a breathless 3-2 thriller to get there, splitting a pool that was almost evenly divided on the game's outcome.

The pool was virtually unanimous on England (67/71) and the USA (68/71), and both delivered — but Belgium vs Senegal was a coin-flip in the stands and in our picks (34 Belgium, 37 Senegal), and the Red Devils edged it in the most dramatic fashion possible.

England 2-1 DR Congo — Job Done, If Not Exactly Beautifully

England got through, which is ultimately all that matters at this stage, though a 2-1 scoreline against a DR Congo side that punched above their weight will give Gareth Southgate's successor — Thomas Tuchel — some tactical homework before the quarter-finals. The Three Lions went ahead through a polished first-half performance, but Congo refused to fold and pulled one back to make the closing stages unexpectedly nervy. England were clear pre-match favourites and the result lands exactly as the market expected — no upset here. What's notable is how few people in our pool saw it ending 2-1: 23 of you had a clean 2-0, 11 went for 3-1, and only 13 nailed the actual 2-1 scoreline (congrats Andrew Burke, Anna Lyn, Basil Waite, Catherine J, Chinwe U, Joe O'Leary, Lennox J, Mehdi L, Nico B, Patrick Williams, Sarit Dhupa, Umang Desai, and Warren Graver). All 67 who backed England advance in the outcome column — just the final-score hunters sorting themselves out from here.

Belgium 3-2 Senegal — The Pool's Knife-Edge Thriller

If you wanted drama, the evening kick-off delivered it in buckets. Belgium and Senegal served up a five-goal barnstormer that went down to the wire, with the Red Devils eventually prevailing 3-2 in what was the match of the day and arguably the most nerve-shredding game of the Round of 32 so far. Pre-match this was genuinely close — our pool reflected it perfectly, with 37 members backing Senegal and only 34 going Belgium — and the bookmakers saw it similarly, with Belgium holding a narrow edge as slight favourites given their squad depth. Senegal's Sadio Mané and company made Belgium work every second for it, and at various points in the second half the Lions of Teranga looked like they might pull it off. In the end Belgium's attacking quality — the de Bruyne-orchestrated build-up play, the clinical finishing — just about told. Only 34 of our 71 picked the right side, and a mere 3 nailed the exact 3-2 scoreline. The 21 who went 1-2 Senegal — Alexandre Mayor, Franklin Leonard, Garold Hamilton and company — will be feeling it tonight.

USA 2-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina — The Home Nation Delivers on the Big Stage

Playing in front of a raucous home crowd, the United States put in the most complete performance of the day, shutting out Bosnia & Herzegovina with a composed 2-0 win that sent the host nation into the last 16 to the delight of the packed stadium. Bosnia had their moments — they always do, physical and direct — but the USMNT looked a level above, with the defensive shape holding firm and the attacking transitions sharp. The USA were heavy favourites going in and delivered exactly as billed. Our pool agreed: 68 of 71 backed them, making this the single most consensus pick of the day. The real contest was on the scoreline — 20 of you went 2-1, 19 went 2-0, and those 19 (Adam Lyn, Andrew Burke, Andrew R, Basil Waite, Chinwe U, Edward Sharp, Erica and Fred, Glendese Miller-Lyn, Jakub K, Jermaine G, Jon Steitz, Kyle Kellier, Lennox J, Matthew C, Mehdi L, Mike Davis, Shayne S, and Yuval S among them) can take a bow tonight for calling it spot-on.

Pool Scorecard — A Solid but Not Spectacular Day

Three from three for the favourites means today was a good day for consensus pickers — the pool's overall crowd accuracy sits at 67%, which is respectable but leaves room for the contrarians to close the gap if the knockout rounds keep throwing up surprises. The scoreline game is where standings shifted: the 13 who nailed England's 2-1, the 19 who called USA's 2-0 clean sheet, and the precious 3 who foresaw Belgium's 3-2 thriller are the ones climbing the leaderboard tonight. Basil Waite had a quietly excellent evening, picking both England 2-1 and the USA 2-0 correctly on the scoreline. Tomorrow the knockout rounds continue — stay sharp, because after tonight's Belgium-Senegal rollercoaster, it's clear that 'expected result' is only ever a working hypothesis at a World Cup.

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